{"version":"1.0","provider_name":"SCNODE.COM","provider_url":"https:\/\/scnode.com","author_name":"scnode.com","author_url":"https:\/\/scnode.com\/index.php\/author\/scnode-com\/","title":"Enterprise Risk Management for resilient supply chain - SCNODE.COM","type":"rich","width":600,"height":338,"html":"<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"pjeETiEubH\"><a href=\"https:\/\/scnode.com\/index.php\/enterprise-risk-management-for-resilient-supply-chain\/\">Enterprise Risk Management for resilient supply chain<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" src=\"https:\/\/scnode.com\/index.php\/enterprise-risk-management-for-resilient-supply-chain\/embed\/#?secret=pjeETiEubH\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" title=\"&#8220;Enterprise Risk Management for resilient supply chain&#8221; &#8212; SCNODE.COM\" data-secret=\"pjeETiEubH\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\"><\/iframe><script>\n\/*! This file is auto-generated *\/\n!function(d,l){\"use strict\";l.querySelector&&d.addEventListener&&\"undefined\"!=typeof URL&&(d.wp=d.wp||{},d.wp.receiveEmbedMessage||(d.wp.receiveEmbedMessage=function(e){var t=e.data;if((t||t.secret||t.message||t.value)&&!\/[^a-zA-Z0-9]\/.test(t.secret)){for(var s,r,n,a=l.querySelectorAll('iframe[data-secret=\"'+t.secret+'\"]'),o=l.querySelectorAll('blockquote[data-secret=\"'+t.secret+'\"]'),c=new RegExp(\"^https?:$\",\"i\"),i=0;i<o.length;i++)o[i].style.display=\"none\";for(i=0;i<a.length;i++)s=a[i],e.source===s.contentWindow&&(s.removeAttribute(\"style\"),\"height\"===t.message?(1e3<(r=parseInt(t.value,10))?r=1e3:~~r<200&&(r=200),s.height=r):\"link\"===t.message&&(r=new URL(s.getAttribute(\"src\")),n=new URL(t.value),c.test(n.protocol))&&n.host===r.host&&l.activeElement===s&&(d.top.location.href=t.value))}},d.addEventListener(\"message\",d.wp.receiveEmbedMessage,!1),l.addEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\",function(){for(var e,t,s=l.querySelectorAll(\"iframe.wp-embedded-content\"),r=0;r<s.length;r++)(t=(e=s[r]).getAttribute(\"data-secret\"))||(t=Math.random().toString(36).substring(2,12),e.src+=\"#?secret=\"+t,e.setAttribute(\"data-secret\",t)),e.contentWindow.postMessage({message:\"ready\",secret:t},\"*\")},!1)))}(window,document);\n\/\/# sourceURL=https:\/\/scnode.com\/wp-includes\/js\/wp-embed.min.js\n<\/script>\n","description":"enterprise risk management for resilient supply chain Mitigating risks via Enterprise Risk Management tools Risk management in the supply chain is undoubtfully a very complex topic, requiring a structured approach to effectively navigate the myriad uncertainties and potential disruptions. Without a systematic framework in place, identifying, assessing, and mitigating risks can be daunting tasks fraught with ambiguity. However, leveraging and embracing advanced methodologies and tools based on probabilistic modeling offers a structured means of quantifying and monitoring risks. By integrating probabilistic techniques with data-driven insights, organizations can gain a deeper understanding of the probabilistic dependencies and interrelationships within the supply chain ecosystem. This enables them to proactively identify vulnerabilities, assess the likelihood and impact of various risk events, and implement targeted mitigation strategies to enhance resilience and mitigate the potential impact of disruptions on supply chain operations. \u00a0 Bayesian Networks for effective risk monitoring In the labyrinth of decision-making, where uncertainties lurk at every corner, Enterprise Risk Management tools, mainly based on Bayesian Networks, emerge as guiding beacons, illuminating pathways through the darkness of ambiguity. At their core lies a mathematical schema that intertwines probability theory with graphical representations, enabling the modeling, inference, and understanding of complex systems.\u00a0 Conditional Probability: Central to Bayesian networks is conditional probability, a cornerstone of probability theory. It quantifies the likelihood of an event occurring given the occurrence of another event. Mathematically, it&#8217;s expressed as: P(A\u2223B)= P(A\u2229B)\/P(B) Here, P(A\u2223B) denotes the probability of event A occurring given that event B has occurred, P(A\u2229B) represents the joint probability of both events A and B occurring, and P(B) is the probability of event B occurring. Graphical Representation: Bayesian networks are epitomized by directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), where nodes represent variables or events. Directed edges between nodes denote probabilistic dependencies or causal relationships. Each node is associated with a conditional probability distribution, quantifying the likelihood of the node&#8217;s value given the values of its parent nodes. Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs): Conditional probability tables are the scaffolding upon which Bayesian networks are built. They capture the conditional probabilities of each node given its parent nodes&#8217; values. For nodes with parents, the CPT specifies the probability distribution of the node&#8217;s possible states conditioned on the parent nodes&#8217; states. Bayes&#8217; Theorem: Bayes&#8217; theorem, a fundamental principle underpinning Bayesian networks, facilitates the updating of probabilities based on new evidence. Mathematically, it&#8217;s expressed as: P(A\u2223B)=P(B\u2223A)\u00d7P(A)\/P(B)\u200b Here, P(A\u2223B) is the posterior probability of A given B, P(B\u2223A) is the likelihood of B given A, and P(A) and P(B) are the prior probabilities of A and B, respectively. The mathematical schema characterizing Bayesian networks embodies the fusion of probability theory, graphical representations, and inferential methodologies. As organizations traverse the landscapes of uncertainty, Bayesian networks stand as formidable allies, guiding them through the complexities of decision-making and illuminating pathways to resilience and innovation. In an era defined by uncertainty, Bayesian networks serve as lighthouses, casting rays of clarity amidst the fog of ambiguity. Main applications of Bayesian Networks Bayesian networks empower diverse applications, from machine learning and artificial intelligence to risk management and diagnostic systems. In this article, we will explore two main usage of such methodology: Supply chain risk management and Predictive maintenance. In the first case the DAG is used to explore the impact of risks on the whole supply chain and simulate plausible combination of events (i.e. a port closure and lack of containers). In the second, DAGs support diagnostic maintenance by leveraging probabilistic inference to identify the root causes of failures and prognostic maintenance by predicting future machinery health. Both the two cases deal with risk management, but at a different level of abstraction. 1. ERM for the supply chain In supply chain risk management, Bayesian networks offer probabilistic modeling, scenario analysis, and decision support, enabling organizations to navigate uncertainties with confidence. They aid in building anti-fragile supply chains by identifying vulnerabilities, dynamically managing risks, and optimizing resilience strategies. Risks, in the supply chain, can derive from many different sources, here shortly summarized. Supplier Reliability: In a manufacturing supply chain, a company relies on multiple suppliers to provide raw materials. However, the reliability of each supplier varies, and disruptions in the supply chain can occur if a critical supplier fails to deliver on time. A Bayesian network can be constructed to assess the reliability of each supplier based on historical performance data, lead times, geographical location, and other relevant factors. By incorporating conditional probabilities, the network can calculate the likelihood of a supplier meeting delivery deadlines or encountering disruptions, enabling the company to prioritize suppliers and implement contingency plans accordingly. Demand Forecasting and Inventory Management: Accurate demand forecasting is essential for optimizing inventory levels and ensuring customer satisfaction. A Bayesian network can be used to model the probabilistic relationships between various factors influencing demand, such as seasonality, marketing campaigns, economic indicators, and competitor activities. By incorporating historical sales data and external variables, the network can generate probabilistic forecasts of future demand. These forecasts can then be used to optimize inventory levels, reduce stockouts, and minimize excess inventory, leading to improved supply chain efficiency and cost savings. Disruptions: Supply chains are vulnerable to various risks, including natural disasters, geopolitical tensions, transportation delays, and quality issues. A Bayesian network can be employed to assess the likelihood and impact of different risks on supply chain operations. By incorporating historical data, expert knowledge, and external factors, the network can quantify the probabilities of various risk events occurring and their potential consequences. This information can then be used to prioritize risks, develop mitigation strategies, and allocate resources effectively to minimize the impact of disruptions on the supply chain. Supplier Selection and Contract Negotiation: When selecting suppliers and negotiating contracts, companies must consider various factors such as cost, quality, lead times, and reliability. A Bayesian network can assist in this process by modeling the probabilistic relationships between supplier attributes and performance metrics. By analyzing historical data and expert assessments, the network can calculate the probabilities of different suppliers meeting performance targets and the expected costs associated with &hellip; Leggi tutto \"\"","thumbnail_url":"https:\/\/scnode.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Immagine5.png","thumbnail_width":2250,"thumbnail_height":1439}